Free Online Geothermal Risk Calculator: Monte Carlo MWe Range

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The volumetric geothermal method runs 10,000 times with every input drawn from its range. Recovery factor usually dominates the tornado, which is the honest reason early geothermal estimates spread so wide: the rock volume is mappable, but how much heat wells actually sweep is not, until they flow.

Geothermal power as a probability

The deterministic geothermal resource tool one suite over gives a single megawatt rating; this one tells the truth around it. Every input gets a range, the heat in place cascade runs 10,000 times, and the electric rating comes back as a distribution with the P90 that sizes the plant, the P50 that sells the project, and the P10 that tempts investors. The tornado chart ranks the unknowns, and it almost always says the same thing: drill the well, because recovery factor dwarfs everything a desk can refine.

Histogram of Monte Carlo geothermal power outcomes in MWe with P90, P50, and P10 marked, beside a tornado chart of volume, temperature, recovery, and efficiency
Ten thousand versions of the resource: the plant you size, the project you sell, the upside that tempts.

Seeded simulation, reproducible statistics, all in the browser.

What the spread teaches

  • A P90 to P10 span of three or four to one is normal before flow testing; announcing the P50 alone is how projects end up famous.
  • Temperature matters less than intuition says: it enters once, while area, thickness, and recovery multiply.
  • Conversion efficiency is tightly bounded by thermodynamics, so it sits at the bottom of the tornado; do not spend money refining it.
  • When the P90 already clears your minimum economic size, the project is robust; that single sentence is what this tool exists to test.

What this tool is for

Screening prospects honestly, scoping how much a flow test would narrow the range, and putting probabilistic language into geothermal classrooms.

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